[SMM analysis] China's copper concentrate imports rose 16.4 per cent in the first 11 months compared with the same period a year earlier, and the spot TC rally could not stop?

SMM, Dec. 11-China imported 1.699 million tons of copper ore and its concentrate in November, up 8 percent from 1.569 million tons in October, down 6 percent from last year, mainly due to the high base last year and the early release of demand. Imports of copper ore and its concentrate totaled about 18.25 million tons in the first 11 months of this year, up 16.4 per cent from a year earlier and slowing from 19 per cent in the previous 10 months.

At present, China is the world's largest consumer of copper and the largest importer of copper concentrate, accounting for more than 50 per cent of the world's copper consumption. In the case of high consumption, low reserves and low production, the degree of external dependence is as high as 70%.

The price of imported copper concentrate TC hovered around US $80 / ton from March to May this year, and rose all the way after June. Last week, the copper concentrate TC opened up again, breaking through the long-term operating range of 90-95. The abundance of spot made the market completely biased towards the buyer, with SMM clean mine spot TC trading at US $92 to US $97 / ton, up US $1.50 / ton from the previous month. SMM expects spot TC to continue to rise, the watershed may have to wait for the direction of Vedanta.

SMM believes that imports of copper concentrate increased by 16.4% in the first 11 months of this year compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the rising TC since June, which has greatly aroused the buying interest of refineries, and that the expansion of domestic refineries is mostly concentrated in the second half of the year. It is also necessary to prepare enough raw materials for its follow-up production. A slight slowdown in import growth in the fourth quarter was also expected, mainly due to previous demand overdrafts, and full-year growth is expected to remain at 15% to 20% with the last month of import quotas left in 2018.

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